More Owners Optimistic About Home Values

 
The number of home owners who fear the value of their homes will fall in the next year declined to 15 percent in January, the lowest level since early 2007, according to a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey published last week.

That's a big improvement over the first quarter of 2009, when 26 percent expected the value of their homes to decline.

Home owners were less optimistic about gains in the value of their homes, with the average anticipated annual gain holding steady at 2.7 percent in January.

In January, 46 percent said the value of their homes decreased in the past year, while 14 percent said the value had increased.

Source: Reuters News, Julie Haviv (02/05/2010)

Mortgage Applications Jump Last Week

Mortgage applications shot up 21 percent last week compared to the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. On an unadjusted basis, applications rose 23.5 percent.

The unadjusted purchase index increased 17.5 percent compared with the previous week, but was down 11.2 percent from the same week a year ago.

"Mortgage application volume rebounded last week, returning the purchase and refinance indexes to levels from mid-December," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics.

"Rates continue to hover around 5 percent, quite low by historical standards, but are well above the record lows seen in 2009, and hence are not generating substantial refi volume," Fratantoni said. "We expect that rates will rise over the next few months as the Federal Reserve winds down its MBS purchase program, and this will likely lead to a decline in refinance volume."

Here are the average contract interest rate changes:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.01 percent from 5.02 percent.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.33 percent from 4.34 percent.
• 1-year ARMs decreased to 6.70 percent from 6.84 percent.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (02/03/2010)

Apartments Moving in the Right Direction

A quarterly survey of conditions in the apartment market hasn't changed much in the last six months, a positive sign in this tough atmosphere.

The National Multi Housing Council, which conducted the survey, reports that there was a steady uptick in sales volume and equity financing was increasingly available, "which represents another step, albeit a small one, toward a more normal transactions market, said NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky.

Obrinsky predicts that when job growth returns, "a large wave of Echo Boomers will enter the supply-constrained market and we should see above average rent growth."

Pending Home Sales Stabilize

Pending home sales have leveled from a market swing driven by response to the home buyer tax credit, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, increased 1 percent to 96.6 from 95.6 in November, and remains 10.9 percent above December 2008 when it was 87.1.

In November, the monthly index had fallen by 16.4 percent from surging activity in preceding months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says it's important to recognize how the tax credit is skewing market data.

"There are easily understood swings in contract activity as buyers respond to a tax credit that was expiring and was then extended and expanded," he says. "These swings are masking the underlying trend, which is a broad improvement over year-ago levels."

December activity was the fifth highest monthly tally in two years.

The Tax Credit Impact

Buyers who have a contract in place to purchase a primary residence by April 30, 2010, have until June 30, 2010, to finalize the transaction to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers.

Yun projects the extended and expanded tax credit will encourage 2.4 million households to take the credit in 2010.

"While new-home sales will remain low due to a lack of construction, existing-home sales are projected to rise to around 5.6 million in 2010," Yun says. Last year there were 5.16 million existing-home sales.

He added that one of the greatest benefits of rising sales will be firming home prices.

"For several months now we've been seeing stabilization in all of the home price measures as inventory is pulled down," Yun says. "As a result, the housing wealth for many middle class families has begun to stabilize."

Regional Data

Here's a breakdown by region for the PHSI:

• Northeast: rose 2.3 percent to 76.1 in December and is 14.9 percent higher than December 2008.
• Midwest: increased 5.2 percent to 86.9 and is 8.7 percent above a year ago.
• South: rose 2.2 percent to an index of 98.4, and are 5.5 percent higher than December 2008.
• West: fell 3.8 percent to 119.9 but is 18.6 percent above a year ago.

-NAR

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